Flying cars ... a social step?

I was asked recently about the prospect of flying cars. This often happens to futurologists! And it's so often the case that people are interested in the technology angle. However the technology is not really the major factor in when we will have these. We are already capable of building cars that can drive themselves. For the masses to fly/drive, this is in my view pretty much a pre-requisite. The technology needs not only to keep the "car" in the air and navigate it to where it needs to end up, but also prevent the average driver from doing daft, undesirable or dangerous things. We have seen the same thing happen in traditional cars, where technology has been incrementally introduced to prevent such things as skidding, collisions, parking accidents etc. Once vehicles take to the air then there are further undesirable actions to guard against.

We already have a test that people undertake before being given a licence to drive on the public highway. There needs to be something equivalent for individuals who will be ultimately responsible for vehicles that leave the ground, however automated the vehicles might be. And as with driverless cars, the infrastructure doesn't really support the concept. Infrastructural development always takes more time and money than the technology that operates within it. An analogy here is the development of cellular network technology consistently failing to be deployed to keep up with the smartphone devices that could utilise them.

Yes, personal transport that can leave the ground will be developed, but it won't be soon so don't hold your breath ... and the delay is unlikely to be due to the technology needed. And in the current climate, it would need a very green propulsion system to gain traction in the marketplace. We are likely to see radical changes in the fuels used for cars before the latter take to the air. This is because of where we are today, not because of the technology required.

Future transport - 1936 style innovation

After a quiet early summer period here on my blog when I have been busy with other things, I couldn't resist a posting on the subject of transport futures, having spotted this Pink Tentacle article; and so it heralds a period of more regular blogging from me again.

I'm sure James Dyson would feel vindicated about the most recent ball innovation he has brought to his range of vacuum cleaners should he see the Pink Tentacle article which highlights spherical wheels for future transportation. [Although I have to say, as good as Dyson cleaners are, it seems a little strange to see the trademark symbol ™ against a plastic ball!] If Dyson were to combine their excellent vacuum technology with some robotics, I would be sorely tempted to upgrade to another Dyson that does the cleaning itself, as is the case with some other brands.

Getting back to transport though, it is interesting how the Pink Tentacle article content from 1936 concentrates on different wheels as defining the future. The reasons given for the spherical wheel innovation (smoother ride & cushioning in an accident) are also different to Dyson's reasoning of better manoeuvrability! A majority of current forecasts for future cars focus not on different wheels but different engine technology and navigation systems. It demonstrates how innovation needs to address the issues of the moment. The problem in 1936 with cars wasn't the number of internal combustion engines polluting the planet but the discomfort of the ride, quality of road surfaces and poor suspension.

It was the same with the innovation of the original iPod. The issues of the moment then were not that playing music couldn't be done on the move (as it was when Sony brought us the original cassette Walkman). Some commentators at the time saw iPod as just the next form of portable media after CD players. Actually the issues of the moment were more about being able to not only take any amount of music with you, but to select any track from thousands simply and easily as well as embracing the moment of broadband internet facilitating the download of music.

And this idea of addressing the right issues of the moment holds true for successful innovation, whatever the product or service. To think about future transport requires though about about what the future issues of the moment might be!

Organisations setting expectation

Have just returned from a short vacation trip on the Orient Express, hence the relatively quiet period on this blog ... not much reasonably priced internet access on there! Back now and raring to put fingers to keyboard.

I often mention experience here in this blog, as a differentiator in customer service. And I put it much higher than technical specification for the success of gadgets. My recent trip on one of the most luxurious trains in the world has provided me with another example of a great customer experience, with parallels to the more familiar Apple examples. In the same way that delivery times for Apple products have often been bettered by actual delivery dates, the Orient Express organisation mirrored this by setting expectations of a very reasonable level of customer service and then still exceeding it. This is actually a very simple thing to think about and execute but it's amazing how many organisations just don't get it.

People love to believe that they are getting extras or something better than what is promised. Achieving this when your standards are already good is an example of how to make customers feel great about products and services.

A Journey to London & Back...

Yesterday, I travelled with fellow Futurologist Ian Pearson from Ipswich to London by car. It was a journey we could've expected to have completed in just over an hour and a half ... in practice it took at least 3 hours both ways. The time spent in traffic queues caused us to discuss a number of transport related issues...

Firstly we observed that like so many other people, we had chosen to make the trip by car, rather than take the train. Train services are still over-priced and risk unreliability and a lack of punctuality. This means that more people choose the individuality of the motor car and thus add to the congestion problem. It seems strange that in continental Europe, train services are much better and whilst most of our utility companies are now run by 'foreign' owners, our train services still are not.

Secondly the standard of driving, in terms of distance between vehicles, lane discipline, speed regulation, and late braking, was noticeably poor. Future vehicles that can take some of these decisions away from the human driver will improve average throughput of existing road bandwidth. The 'highlight' was at a major roundabout when one car travelling in the left lane decided to go right while simultaneously someone else in the right lane decided to go left. They were left with a complex negotiation to make about how to avoid collision while the rest of the traffic was forced to brake behind them.

Much of the congestion was caused by encountering sets of roadworks one after another after another. It is most frustrating to find some long segments of road coned off and speed limits imposed where no work was actually in progress. It would be better if many of these roadworks could be cleared during the peak rush hour periods when the impact on traffic flow is greatest.

It is still frustrating that road speed limits are still based on what a bureaucrat in a planning office decided would be best decades ago regardless of the road conditions, weather or traffic volumes. The case for flexible speed limits signed electronically in real time, designed for modern cars and taking into account the dynamics of the road as it changes, is stronger than ever.

Unlock your car with your iPhone!

The Zipcar is a twist on the usual rental car arrangement (more like a car sharing hybrid model) where members pay $50 a year membership fee and then roughly $8 an hour for usage. Cars are left all over cities and once authorised, members can unlock and drive one wherever they need to go. Now members of Zipcar can use an iPhone application to find and book cars on the move. The application even allows the member to remotely sound the horn of a particular car they have booked in order to find it in a parking lot, and to unlock the car once they have swiped their membership card over the windscreen (windshield). About a quarter of Zipcar members apparently have an iPhone already so the market and overlap of the user base is quite good. It's an early sign of what we will see our future mobile phones able to do.

I already have a token in my pocket for my Lexus which unlocks the car when I approach it without the need to press any buttons and allows me to start the engine once inside without any key. The car already links automatically to my iPhone to allow hands-free operation. It will be interesting to see if the integration philosophy of the iPod hardware interface by car producers is repeated at an application level with smartphone platforms like iPhone, and how quickly. So in future, if I have my phone in my pocket, it may not matter if I don't carry the token anymore. Such developments do not need any further technology breakthroughs; rather it just needs the cooperation between organisations in different markets, e.g. phones and automobiles.

Robot cars sounding fishy?

Nature has often inspired scientists in the way they look at solutions to problems. The communication and co-operation of ants and the flight and navigation of the bumble bee are two examples of this. Now we learn that Nissan is looking at how shoals of fish manage to move at speed in large numbers together in close proximity without collisions, to inspire how to make robotic cars of the future avoid collisions as well. The car in question is called the EPORO ... which is being shown at the CEATEC technology show in Japan, one which I was able to attend some years ago. They are able to demonstrate 6 EPORO cars travelling as one shoal or group! While fish use sight and lateral line sense, the EPORO interestingly uses ultra wide band radio to "see" and a laser range finder as a lateral sensor. I have blogged before about robot self-driving cars ... these developments by Nissan are steps along the road towards this (sorry for the pun!).

The latest hybrid car in the UK

It was last weekend when I was fortunate to have an in-depth look at and drive of the latest Toyota Prius. This is the third generation of the model to hit the UK's roads and is a significant leap forward from the previous generation. The hybrid performance has been improved and the CO2 emission figures reduced below the magic 100g/cm3 despite the petrol engine included under the bonnet (hood for our US readers!) having been boosted to 1.8 litre.

The high end (spirit) model includes all the previous innovations such as voice control, automatic parking assistance and route guidance integrated with traffic news / incident replanning but a couple of new features caught my eye. The first is the introduction of a fighter-plane style Head Up Display (HUD) projected onto the windscreen (US: windshield!). This really does mean that in driving the car you need to divert your eyes from the road considerably less. The second innovation which is an costly option (probably only worth it if you live in a mainly sunny area such as California!) is a solar powered sunroof and air-conditioning system which pre-cools the car before you get in if left in a sunny spot but without turning on the ignition and without using any petrol (US:gas) fuel. Interestingly if you choose this solar sunroof option, you must have smaller and hence lighter wheels (and no spare) fitted in order that the overall weight allows the fuel efficiency figures to be achieved, which shows how close to tolerances the environmental aims are pushing things.

The new model Prius drives much like the previous one although the throttle response is variable and very obviously different in three new power settings (eco/elec/perf). Externally as well as being a little longer, the most striking change is the redesign of the light clusters. The latter seems to cause the main dislike I have about the new model which is the move to a single reversing and single fog lamp at the rear, compromise too many in my view. Overall the car is great example of pushing the hybrid lead that Toyota have even further.

Icy Highway Madness

This week has seen some of the worst snow in the UK for 18 years.  Many roads were in a treacherous condition.  I had a necessary journey to make early one morning to an airport and home again before the main snow arrived.  It was absolutely incredible how fast the odd driver was prepared to try and go on very patchy icy surfaces.  I have written here before about the future of automated cars which will take much of the responsibility for driving away from human beings.  On snowy and icy days like this week, such automation cannot come quick enough.  

One of my cars has computer control of the throttle as well as steering (for automatic reversing).  The traction and stability systems are able to judge much better than many drivers the exact optimum acceleration to apply to climb hills on a slippery surface, to make progress without wheelspin.  We already have auto speed limiters on larger vehicles like lorries.  It shouldn't be so difficult for the same sort of system to be applied to other vehicles when the road conditions demand it.  In general I have reservations about giving up the pleasure of driving to technology, because I actually enjoy driving.  However it may just be worth the sacrifice if the mad individuals who drive at wreckless speeds in poor road conditions are prevented from doing so by automated vehicles, reducing accidents, delays and injuries to themselves and others. 

Technology driving cars

There is lots of potential for adding yet more technology to the motor car.  In the past, this has often focused more on the environment within the vehicle.  More recently the focus has been on assistance with navigation.  Technology assisting the driver with control of the car has mainly been associated with error or exception conditions, such as emergency braking, anti-skidding, etc.  But there is more scope for technology that assists the driver more actively in normal driving or rather taking activities away from the driver altogether.  

Cars are already out there which use millimetre radar to actively manage the distance between it and the car in front.  One of my own cars is able to take control of the steering to automatically park itself either parallel or perpendicular to other vehicles.  It is not such a step from this for cars to identify and propose safe overtaking or lane changing opportunities.  Hopefully we will eventually combine many such systems to allow the total capacity of our road network to be increased by more dense packing of vehicles at speeds and distances totally regulated by the cars themselves rather than the human occupants.  

I enjoy driving a good deal, but I would rather give up some of the activity if automation allows less congestion and therefore reduces the propensity of Governments to regulate for less use of personal cars and more more of a move to public transport.   Using my own personal transport with all of its advantages, is more important to me than needing to drive it myself.

Aborted trip !

I was hoping to write this blog entry from Belfast today but my trip had to be cancelled due to a fault with the plane that I had boarded.  An eagle-eyed ground crew inspector noticed a few drops of liquid from one of the engines which turned out to be a fuel leak and after much testing, the plane was declared unfit to use until repairs had been effected.   The subsequent delay was too long for me to make the conference I was due to speak at.

  

I would like to think that some technology on board the plane would have detected such a problem, but it demonstrates the importance of the human touch still today.  

Augmented reality coming true?

The power of the online world will be much more realised when we are able to truly combine it with the real world in real time.  This is often referred to as augmented reality.  We may have to wait a decade before many people are walking around wearing visual devices (active contact lenses or eye glasses with built-in projection) to enable a more immersive augmented reality experience.  

Today I saw this video on YouTube which shows a navigation unit from BlauPunkt ... probably the most reasonable commercial product step towards real time augmented reality I have seen recently.  

Intelligent cars with dumb drivers?

I wrote before about the idea of intelligent transport systems that allow cars to automatically drive people to destinations along highways that are excluded from human drivers.  I also mentioned about possible benefits of better packing density of cars on roads, fewer accidents and less congestion delay.  Much of this vision would be enhanced by inter-car communications, allowing the systems controlling the cars to talk to each other in a peer to peer type chain along a road.  

The EU has now agreed to reserve 30MHz of radio spectrum in the 5.9GHz band for precisely this function.  Of course they quote the same benefits, highlighting the number of road transport deaths due to accidents, and the amount of money lost due to congestion on European roads.  But can systems based on car to car communications provide any better information to drivers that they can act upon to attain these benefits?  Well I think it is marginal unless we take the bigger step of removing the driver from the control function of the car completely.  Making vehicles more intelligent without giving them control in place of humans is of little value.  This bigger step is much harder to achieve culturally.  It requires social change.  But one day we will.  

Intelligent Transport Systems

I'm sitting here today in London at an event considering Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) of the future.  It's a gathering of people from organisations that work on applications and infrastructure for ITS as well as those involved in digital communications.  

Imagine a future where your car takes account of congestion, optimises for efficiency and environmental concerns, can automatically call and help locate you to the emergency or breakdown services in specific circumstances, and provides information and entertainment for the occupants.  

And then there is the ITS impact on public transport.  Maybe a future blog entry will cover this more.

Our first discussion in groups concerned the challenges of getting ITS deployed.  The consensus was clearly that the major challenges are not technical, but social, political, institutional and regulatory.   I totally agree with this notion.   There are plenty of clever engineers around to solve the technical problems.   

Flying cars, Sir Clive?

In the early 80's, when I was a teenager, the brainchild early computers of Sir Clive Sinclair began my interest in that technology, which so far has led to a computer science degree and my current career.  Now Sir Clive, in an interview with the BBC, has predicted flying cars in the future.  

I think he is probably right!  In due course I think we will see personal flying vehicles of some sort which will be automatically controlled and where the passenger is simply moved from one place to another through the air.  I am not sure that I concur about the power source being electric, but I would imagine some combination of power sources which doesn't rely solely on petrol.  It may well be that the vehicle is able to complete parts of its journey in other ways other than flying.  Convergence is not simply a telecommunications term.  I believe it will apply to transportation more and more.  

Car futures

So the world oil price continues to rise ... the cost of petrol (gas for my transatlantic readers!) continues to rise and governments like the UK continue to tax these substances heavily.  They also plan to tax the purchase of cars that consume the most fuel and give the highest emissions.  Of course the green lobby think this is pressure on people to use cars is insufficient and wonder why people don't simply want to give up their car for public transport.  Well its quite simple really.  People generally like their cars!  

Car owners tend to look after their cars.  They personalise them, customise them and enjoy the individual freedom that transport dedicated to them gives them.  They like the door to door and anytime of any day nature of the car.  And many of the nicest cars on the road are not actually owned by individuals at all; rather by leasing companies who provide the car on behalf of employers as a part of their reward package.  So why is it that some people imagine that these car users want to leave their cars (which are inherently also a symbol of their success) on the driveway at home to get on a bus?  This assumes that a bus is actually available as an alternative.

Of course technology is gradually meaning that manufacturers can offer lower consumption cars; my favourite hybrids are from Lexus but they are of course many others.  Honda have just announced details of experiments they have done with a hydrogen powered car, for example. And elements of the green lobby will still rant on about the whole lifecycle cost of such cars to the environment, but fail to see that changing the automotive industry to newer greener mechanisms than the combustion engine is like turning a super-tanker.  It will happen through small steps and gradually.  And people will gradually get used to these new-fangled types of car and begin buying them in large numbers (as with Toyota's Prius).  

But eventually, the answer is not to take people out of their cars which they love, but to make the car and road systems more efficient.  Journey times could be faster, congestion and accident rates much lower (if not extremely rare at all) on major trunk routes by allowing technology to control the cars.  The inter-car gaps could be smaller and more traffic carried.  People will be unable to manually join a motorway or freeway; only the computerised automated systems within vehicles will be able to manage this.  

The answer in the longer term I believe is to apply technology to give people what they want but in a greener, more environmentally and safe way, rather than tax and charge them to change the social behaviour of what others would like them to want.  So I hope this latter approach is just one of the stepping stones while we await the technological change that is necessary.